Moves & Metrics
September 2026
The Takeaway: San Mateo is tightening while
Santa Clara is loosening.
San Mateo’s days on market are improving, inventory is down and overbidding is up. Meanwhile, Santa Clara is seeing inventory rise, absorption weaken and price reductions climb.
What’s behind the divergence? Tech layoffs at companies like Meta, Google and Apple may be part of the story, particularly in Santa Clara, which got me wondering where these workers and their housing decisions are going next. In this month’s On The Move, I highlight a Realtor.com article that offers a few clues about where tech workers may be heading.
**All data is prepared by Compass and based on August 2026 data.
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Santa Clara County
Sales pulled back: 639 single-family closings, down 13% YoY and 12% from July. Condos down 9% YoY.
Prices softened: single-family median fell 2% YoY to $1.85M; condo median down 6% to $682K.
Inventory building: active listings up 11% YoY to 1,756 — the opposite direction from San Mateo.
Negotiating power shifting to buyers: price reductions up 21% for single-family, reduction rate now 30%.
San Mateo County
Sales ticked up: 327 single-family closings, +4% YoY (though down 11% from July). Condos softer, -1% YoY.
Prices climbing again: single-family median rose 5% YoY to $2M; condos held flat at $820K.
Competition intensifying: 61% of single-family sales closed above list (+9 points YoY) — the tightest overbidding read in months.
Speed improved sharply: single-family DOM dropped from 30 to 25 days; condos from 80 to 54.
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CITY HIGHLIGHTS
Palo Alto
- Median sale price: $4,005,000 (+11% YoY)
- Closed sales: ~34
- Days on market: 17
- Prices are up 11% year-over-year, but homes still aren’t
sitting. 17 days on market and an 82% absorption rate say
buyers are moving fast, not waiting for a discount. - 72% of homes sold above asking. It looks like the “list price”
is really just the opening bid!
Top Sale of August 2026:
📍1919 Barbara Dr | $6,899,000 | 15% Above Ask
10/3/26, 2:23 AM Moves & Metrics: September
Menlo Park
- Median sale price: $3,580,000 (+24% YoY)
- Closed sales: 29
- Days on market: 17
- 29 closings in a single month, up from 22 last month! Clearly the $3.58M median isn’t giving buyer’s any pause.
- 24% year-over-year is one of the sharpest median sale price jumps out of this list of city snap-shots.
Top Sale of August 2026:
📍40 Montana Ln | $8,250,250 27% Above Ask
Atherton
- Median sale price: $18,650,000 (+118% YoY)
- Closed sales: 4
- Days on market: 8
- $18.65M median, up 118% year-over-year but WAIT thenumbers are skewed as only 4 homes sold. A couple ofestate-level deals has impacted this numbers.
- Every single close was $5M or above, same as alwaysAtherton just doesn’t play in any other price bracket!
Top Sale of August 2026:
📍178 Atherton Ave | $38,000,000 | 4.9% Below Ask
Reminder: In ultra-luxury markets like Atherton and Los Altos Hills, ahandful of marquee sales can materially shift monthly medians.
Los Altos
- Median sale price: $4,912,300 (+20% YoY)
- Closed sales: 20
- Days on market: 21
- A 119% absorption rate is the highest on this list with morehomes are going under contract than are coming onto themarket, which is about as tight as a market gets.
- 20% price growth year-over-year, and it’s not a fl uke of asmall sample this time like Atherton, 20 closings back it up.
Top Sale of August 2026:
📍761 University Ave | $16,00,000
Los Altos Hills
- Median Home Price: $6,250,000 (-4% YoY)
- Closed sales: 7
- Days on market: 40
- Only 7 sales in August, and days on market stretched to 40— the slowest pace of any city on this list this cycle.
- Prices actually dipped slightly (-4% YoY) — proof that eventhe priciest zip codes take a breather sometimes.
Top Sale of August 2026:
📍25600 Burke Ln | $11,450,000 | 11.9% Below Ask
Reminder: In ultra-luxury markets like Atherton and Los Altos Hills, ahandful of marquee sales can materially shift monthly medians.
Lisa M. Musich
- DRE# 02210590
- REALTOR ®
- M: 415.619.1426
- lisa.musich@compass.com
- lisamusich.com
Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California operating under multipleentities. License Numbers 01991628, 01527235, 01527365. All material is intended forinformational purposes only and is compiled from sources deemed reliable but is subject toerrors, omissions, changes in price, condition, sale, or withdrawal without notice. Nostatement is made as to the accuracy of any description or measurements (including squarefootage). This is not intended to solicit property already listed. No fi nancial or legal advice provided. Equal Housing Opportunity. Photos may be virtually staged or digitally enhancedand may not refl ect actual property conditions.
