Moves & Metrics
June 2026
My thought balloon at the moment… Which real estate markets will be the recipients of the AI-related upcoming IPO wealth generation? Will the executives head for Atherton? Look for an estate in Napa? A beach house in Baja? The San Francisco housing market is already white-hot, where will the money move if employees of say, Anthropic, are priced out of San Francisco?
Would love to hear your bets on this: lisa.musich@compass.com
Santa Clara County
1. Stability at Elevated Prices
Palo Alto, Los Altos, and Los Altos Hills all continue to maintain historically high values despite rate pressure.
2. Wealth Effect vs. Interest Rates
Luxury markets are increasingly influenced by stock performance and concentrated tech wealth rather than mortgage affordability alone.
3. Supply Constraints Continue
The lack of meaningful new inventory remains one of the strongest supports for pricing across the county.
San Mateo County
1. Luxury Continues to Lead
Atherton and Menlo Park remain among the strongest-performing markets in the county, reinforcing the trend that wealth-driven buyers are less impacted by interest rates.
2. Inventory Remains the Story
Demand remains healthy, but available inventory continues to limit transaction activity and place upward pressure on pricing.
3. The Peninsula Remains a Safe Haven
Buyers continue to prioritize locations offering proximity to major employment centers, top schools, and long-term land scarcity.
**All data is prepared by Compass and based on May 2026 data.
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CITY HIGHLIGHTS
Palo Alto
Median Home Price:
~$3.93M
Year-over-Year Price Change:
+0.7%
Annualized Sales Volume:
Approximately 427 homes.
Palo Alto remains one of Silicon Valley’s most active luxury housing markets, balancing strong demand with meaningful transaction volume.
Pricing has remained remarkably stable despite interest-rate volatility.
The city’s unique combination of schools, employment access, and long-term land constraints continues to support values.
Top Sale of May 2026:
444 Tennyson Ave | $22,000,000 | 11.6% Below Asking
Menlo Park
Median Home Price:
~$3.27M
Days on Market:
Low and generally consistent with a highly competitive luxury market.
Year-over-Year Price Change:
+3% approximately.
Menlo Park continues to be one of the Peninsula’s most liquid luxury markets, combining high transaction volume with strong pricing.
Unlike some ultra-luxury markets, Menlo Park benefi ts from both wealth-driven buyers and owner-occupants seeking proximity to major tech employers.
Despite elevated mortgage rates, buyer demand remains resilient, suggesting affordability concerns are being offset by stock market gains and strong household balance sheets
Top Sale of May 2026:
1650 Oak Ave | $13,500,000
Atherton
Median Home Price:
~$10.5M
Days on Market:
Remains relatively low considering the price point.
Year-over-Year Price Change:
+5% approximately.
Atherton remains the undisputed luxury leader not only on the Peninsula but among the most expensive residential markets in the country.
Even at eight-fi gure price points, values continue to rise, demonstrating the depth of demand among ultra-high-net-worth buyers.
Inventory remains limited, keeping pressure on prices whenever quality properties become available.
Top Sale of May 2026:
2 Somerset Ln
|
$28,00,000
| 5.7% Above Ask
Reminder: In ultra-luxury markets like Atherton and Los Altos Hills, a handful of marquee sales can materially shift monthly medians.
Los Altos
Median Home Price:
~$4.78M
Year-over-Year Price Change:
Essentially fl at.
Los Altos continues to command some of the highest prices in Silicon Valley while maintaining pricing discipline.
Buyers appear comfortable absorbing today’s interest rates in exchange for location, schools, and larger lot sizes.
The market remains supply constrained, limiting downward pressure on values.
Top Sale of May 2026:
680 University Ave | $8,850,000 | 6.1% Below Ask
Los Altos Hills
Median Home Price:
~$5.44M
Year-over-Year Price Change:
+0.7%.
Los Altos Hills continues to attract buyers seeking privacy, larger parcels, and estate-quality properties.
Demand remains surprisingly resilient given the size and price point of many homes.
The market remains highly dependent on luxury buyers and stock-market wealth.
Top Sale of May 2026:
📍
27210 Ohlone Ln
| $10,995,000
Reminder: In ultra-luxury markets like Atherton and Los Altos Hills, a handful of marquee sales can materially shift monthly medians.
Apparently Your House Needs a Personal Brand Now?!?!
Just when you thought you were done spending money on your home, a new trend appears… it’s time to give your home its own merch line!
Lisa M. Musich
- DRE# 02210590
- REALTOR ®
- M: 415.619.1426
- lisa.musich@compass.com
- lisamusich.com
Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California operating under multipleentities. License Numbers 01991628, 01527235, 01527365. All material is intended forinformational purposes only and is compiled from sources deemed reliable but is subject toerrors, omissions, changes in price, condition, sale, or withdrawal without notice. Nostatement is made as to the accuracy of any description or measurements (including squarefootage). This is not intended to solicit property already listed. No fi nancial or legal advice provided. Equal Housing Opportunity. Photos may be virtually staged or digitally enhancedand may not refl ect actual property conditions.
