Moves & Metrics
July 2026
Well, aren’t these stats compelling!
AI wealth effect is the story of the summer: in June, 44 SF home sales closed at least $1M over asking, up from single digits a year ago. Total dollars over-ask in SF: over $60M in June alone.
Santa Clara posted the second-largest YoY price decline of any Bay Area county, and homes are stable at ~1,090/sqft and ~1,834 sqft median. This isn’t smaller/cheaper homes selling, it’s a genuine repricing. Worth pairing with the jobs data (58,000 tech layoffs in 2026) as the likely driver.
San Mateo a counter-story to Santa Clara this month. Prices are up, sales volume up 18.6%, days on market are getting shorter as Santa Clara’s days on market stretches out.
**All data is prepared by Compass and based on June 2026 data.
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Santa Clara County
The county is repricing, not just cooling. With price-per-square-foot and median home size both holding steady, the 9% pullback in median price reflects an actual shift in what’s clearing escrow, not a temporary dip caused by a run of smaller or lower-tier homes selling.
Sellers are still winning, just with less room to spare. A 101% sale-to-list ratio and 43% absorption rate say the market hasn’t flipped to buyers, but the cushion is thinner than San Mateo’s this month, and days on market stretching to 27 days (from 24) suggests some homes are sitting a beat longer before finding their buyer.
Tech’s job losses are starting to show up in the data. With 58,000 Bay Area tech layoffs recorded so far this year, Santa Clara’s softening prices and rising inventory look less like a seasonal lull and more like the county absorbing real labor-market pressure.
San Mateo County
Demand is outrunning the county’s own recovery. Closed sales jumped nearly 19% year-over-year even as prices climbed too. A rare combination that points to genuine depth of buyer demand, not just a handful of high-end transactions skewing the median.
The market is getting faster, not slower. Average days on market fell to 22 (from 27 a year ago) even as prices rose. Usually those two move in opposite directions, so homes here are being absorbed unusually efficiently for a market that’s also appreciating.
San Mateo is quietly the AI-wealth story’s second act. With San Francisco absorbing the most dramatic top-of-market spikes this month, San Mateo’s steady 66% absorption rate and shrinking days on market suggest that same wealth effect is spilling south, just without the headline-grabbing over-ask numbers.
CITY HIGHLIGHTS
Palo Alto
Median Home Price:
~$3.93M
Year-over-Year Price Change:
+0.7%
Annualized Sales Volume:
Approximately 427 homes.
Palo Alto remains one of Silicon Valley’s most active luxury housing markets, balancing strong demand with meaningful transaction volume.
Pricing has remained remarkably stable despite interest-rate volatility.
The city’s unique combination of schools, employment access, and long-term land constraints continues to support values.
Top Sale of May 2026:
444 Tennyson Ave | $22,000,000 | 11.6% Below Asking
Menlo Park
Median Home Price:
~$3.27M
Days on Market:
Low and generally consistent with a highly competitive luxury market.
Year-over-Year Price Change:
+3% approximately.
Menlo Park continues to be one of the Peninsula’s most liquid luxury markets, combining high transaction volume with strong pricing.
Unlike some ultra-luxury markets, Menlo Park benefi ts from both wealth-driven buyers and owner-occupants seeking proximity to major tech employers.
Despite elevated mortgage rates, buyer demand remains resilient, suggesting affordability concerns are being offset by stock market gains and strong household balance sheets
Top Sale of May 2026:
1650 Oak Ave | $13,500,000
Atherton
Median Home Price:
~$10.5M
Days on Market:
Remains relatively low considering the price point.
Year-over-Year Price Change:
+5% approximately.
Atherton remains the undisputed luxury leader not only on the Peninsula but among the most expensive residential markets in the country.
Even at eight-fi gure price points, values continue to rise, demonstrating the depth of demand among ultra-high-net-worth buyers.
Inventory remains limited, keeping pressure on prices whenever quality properties become available.
Top Sale of May 2026:
2 Somerset Ln
|
$28,00,000
| 5.7% Above Ask
Reminder: In ultra-luxury markets like Atherton and Los Altos Hills, a handful of marquee sales can materially shift monthly medians.
Los Altos
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Median Home Price:
~$4.78M
Year-over-Year Price Change:
Essentially fl at.
Los Altos continues to command some of the highest prices in Silicon Valley while maintaining pricing discipline.
Buyers appear comfortable absorbing today’s interest rates in exchange for location, schools, and larger lot sizes.
The market remains supply constrained, limiting downward pressure on values.
Top Sale of May 2026:
680 University Ave | $8,850,000 | 6.1% Below Ask
Los Altos Hills
Median Home Price:
~$5.44M
Year-over-Year Price Change:
+0.7%.
Los Altos Hills continues to attract buyers seeking privacy, larger parcels, and estate-quality properties.
Demand remains surprisingly resilient given the size and price point of many homes.
The market remains highly dependent on luxury buyers and stock-market wealth.
Top Sale of May 2026:
đź“Ť
27210 Ohlone Ln
| $10,995,000
Reminder: In ultra-luxury markets like Atherton and Los Altos Hills, a handful of marquee sales can materially shift monthly medians.
Apparently Your House Needs a Personal Brand Now?!?!
Just when you thought you were done spending money on your home, a new trend appears… it’s time to give your home its own merch line!
From curb appeal to cattle.
On The Move: July 2026. Gives a view of the East pasture in Nebraska (literally!), a look at Eichler’s legacy, the rise of the IPO House, and my summer reading list.. should you need any inspiration!
Lisa M. Musich
- DRE# 02210590
- REALTOR ®
- M: 415.619.1426
- lisa.musich@compass.com
- lisamusich.com
Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California operating under multipleentities. License Numbers 01991628, 01527235, 01527365. All material is intended forinformational purposes only and is compiled from sources deemed reliable but is subject toerrors, omissions, changes in price, condition, sale, or withdrawal without notice. Nostatement is made as to the accuracy of any description or measurements (including squarefootage). This is not intended to solicit property already listed. No fi nancial or legal advice provided. Equal Housing Opportunity. Photos may be virtually staged or digitally enhancedand may not refl ect actual property conditions.
