Moves & Metrics

January 2026 Market Review

As 2026 gets underway, the Bay Area housing market is waking up with renewed energy. Lower interest rates, strong stock market performance, and limited inventory are shaping a market that continues to reward well-prepared buyers and strategic sellers. Here’s a clear snapshot of where things stand right now.

 

**All data is prepared by Compass Chief Market Analyst,

Patrick Carlisle. Email me to receive full country reports**

Market Snapshot | County Overview

Santa Clara County

  • Median house price: $2,210,000 Prices continue a steady upward trend, supported by strong demand in core job-center markets.
  • Median price per square foot: $1,023 Reflects sustained competition for well-located, move-in-ready homes.
  • Luxury market momentum: Home sales above $5M increased approximately 28% year-over-year, underscoring continued strength at the high end.
  • Market tone: Competitive for turnkey properties; buyers are more selective outside of prime offerings.

San Mateo County

  • Median house price: $2,622,500 Reached a new all-time annual high, up roughly 1.5% year-over-year.
  • Median price per square foot: $1,103 Among the highest in the Bay Area.
  • Sales activity: Overall home sales rose about 5% year-over-year, though volume remains low by historical standards.
  • Luxury market performance: Sales above $5M increased approximately 13.5% year-over-year, continuing to outperform the broader market.

City Highlights

Palo Alto

Demand remains strong for homes near top schools and major tech employers. Limited inventory continues to support pricing, particularly for well-priced, turnkey properties.

Top Sale of Dec 2025:

📍 1025 Lincoln Ave | $17,500,000

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Menlo Park

A consistently high-demand market, driven by location and long-term value. Upper-tier sales continue to anchor pricing even as buyers become more discerning.

Top Sale of Dec 2025:

📍955 Monte Rosa Drive | $7,600,000 | 2.4% Below Asking

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Atherton

The ultra-luxury market remains active, with fewer transactions but exceptional pricing. Sales are closely tied to stock market performance and overall wealth trends.

Top Sale of Dec 2025:

📍888 Tuscaloosa Ave | $45,500,000 | 8.8% Below Asking

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Los Altos

Tight inventory and family-driven demand continue to define the market. Homes that are updated and well-located are selling fastest.

Top Sale of Dec 2025:

📍688 Tomi Lea Street | $5,135,000 | 16.8% Above Asking

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Los Altos Hills

Buyers here prioritize privacy, land, and custom homes. Properties tend to take longer to sell, but pricing remains resilient in the luxury segment.

Top Sale of Dec 2025:

📍13010 E Sunset Drive | $19,500,000 | 11.4% Below Asking 

 

Key Takeaways For Sellers & Buyers

Sellers: Correct pricing & strong presentation remain critical as buyers become more selective.

Buyers: Opportunities exist, especially as inventory builds seasonally — preparation and strategy matter.

Both: The luxury segment continues to outperform, driven by broader economic and market conditions.

Lisa M. Musich